Americans Away From Home

A well-meaning American living in France asked this question:

"Let's say Hillary gets Michigan and Florida just the way she wants them, and Edwards endorses her, does that put her over the top because then she gets Edwards' delegates, right?"

She can't win. Period.

Just now, even on Fox News, I saw some clown named Dr. Frank - who is he, anyway? They didn't have the professionalism to say - he literally took off a shoe, said it's not over till the last shoe dropped, dropped his shoe onto the floor, and pronounced, "It's over."

Obama is 155 delegates from getting the nomination, as of yesterday. That means by any combination - superdelgates, or primary votes on May 13 or 20 (W. Virginia tomorrow, Kentucky and Oregon May 20).

By the end of the day May 20, there are this many delegates to be won:

W. Va. 39
Ky 60
Oregon 65

If he Obama gets any delegates in W. Va. and Kentucky, which Clinton is heavily favored to win, or any from Oregon, which he is likely to win, plus superdelegates over the next week, Michigan and Florida's votes won't be needed to claim the nomination.  Clinton could get all their votes and not win the nomination, but she won't get all their votes because of the proportional delegate system Democrats use. With Edwards' supporters' votes added, she's still not going to win, since Obama is likely to get more of them than Clinton will.

Here are the total votes left:

May 13:      W. Va.           39 delegates

May 20       Kentucky       60 delegates Oregon 65 delegates

June 1       Puerto Rico    63 delegates

June 3       Montana        24 delegates 

                 S. Dakota       23 delegates

Do the math. Clinton cannot win. Obama can claim victory May 20, and is planning to.

Carole