270 Electoral Votes! Does Obama have 264?

You get 270 electoral college votes, you win the ball game. The whole enchilada. You're President.

Barack Obama has 264 of them. That's what ABC News is saying.

Here's the reasoning:

Obama leads in every State Kerry won in 2004; this includes California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Obama's likely to win in New Mexico and Iowa, where Bush won in 2004; both parties would say this, according to ABC.

Leaving: Eight States, the battleground: Ohio, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia. Obama is ahead or within the error margin allowed by polls in these States.

One of the above = Obama wins!

Obama leads McCain in Ohio 51-45. (ABC News/Washington Post poll here).

Working class Whites in Ohio? Obama has a 10-point lead over McCain. Trust? More Ohio voters trust Obama to handle the economy than McCain, 52-39 It's just those pesky undecided voters. In Ohio, they add up to 18%.  (ABC News story here).

Carole

Comments

The National Popular Vote bill

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states. The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election. Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect. See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com susan

An Interesting Idea

Hi Susan,

Thanks for taking the time to write this.  It's an intriguing idea.  That way, no one would feel their vote counted less because they happened to live in a State where others mostly agreed with them.

I know people literally choosing where to vote to make their vote count.  Your plan would eliminate any need for that or to feel it makes things different.

Carole

I am slightly confused....I

I am slightly confused....I understand the 270 electorial votes...but how is that fair if one cand. reaches 270 prior to other but the states left uncounted (ie alaska, hawaii and other western states). So is it whoever reaches 270 first or who has the highest in the end??

Election

Yes, whoever is the first to reach 270 votes wins. *Ob@m@ Rock$ The Vote$!!*

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