Americans Away From Home

Dear Democrats Around the World,

Ten days to Election Day…the final push  begins….!!

            a. Obama returns from Hawaii today after visiting his grandmother, who will not likely live to election day. The McCain are criticizing Obama’s use of his campaign plane to fly there. One senior leader compared it to Palin’s purchase of $150K of clothing and was almost laughed off the set of MSNBC. 

           

            b. This is a major development. All of the details are not yet known, but a young woman named Ashley Todd just might be the name that everyone remembers about McCain’s campaign for the presidency. Todd filed a police complaint in Pittsburgh that she was assaulted, fondled and beaten by a six foot four inch black man, who wanted to ‘teach her a lesson’ for supporting John McCain. She appeared with black eyes, red marks over her face and a “B” written backwards in red on her face; ostensibly blood stained from the attacker’s use of a sharp instrument to carve the initial, representing, according to the initial press report “Barrack” Obama. 

                        If true, this is an event that would allow the McCain campaign to come to the defense of the young white woman and arouse every degree of racial disharmony in western Pennsylvania and around the country.

                        The McCain campaign told the story to two television stations, who broke the story along with the Drudge Report.  One station stated that police had not confirmed the incident.

                        The police later arrested Ashley Todd for filing a false report. She made the entire story up; had refused medical examinations in support of her claim.

                        The McCain campaign said that they were not the source of the story for the TV stations, which has turned out to be untrue.

           

            Now the questions are coming fast and furious: Was this story a hoax to change the game in Pennsylvania? Todd was a McCain telephone operator volunteer in the Pittsburgh area, thus the contact between campaign and victim is close. Both McCain and Palin called either the family or Todd (not yet clear).

 

            Stay tuned; if it turns out that the Pennsylvania McCain campaign was behind the hoax, or worse, the national campaign or either candidate, it will be a major nationwide story and even Fox News has said that McCain will have lost the election and will be ‘forever linked to race baiting.”

 

            c. Turns out the highest paid person on the entire McCain campaign is the hairdresser for Sarah Palin – at $11,000 a week. After the $150,000 clothing spree, the image that Palin is just your "little ole down home hockey Mom", who can see Putin from her porch (snark) might have a crack or two,

 

            d. Former Republican Massachusetts Gov. William Weld endorsed Obama yesterday.

 

            e McCain campaign staff member, Charles Fried, a Harvard professor, a well-known and respected conservative legal scholar and former Solicitor General under Ronald Reagan, resigned from all of his positions on committees with the McCain campaign and wrote a letter to McCain telling him that he had already voted by absentee ballot for Barack Obama. Reason given: McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin for VP.

 

            f. Meanwhile Obama’s lead in national polling, both tracking and periodic is increasing on average to above 8%. 

 

Now to the West Coast and Mountain States:

California/55               57.0 – 36.0 +19.0                    54.7 – 38.1 + 16.6      

Last week:                    53.3 – 38.8 + 14.5                   53.4 = 39.6 +13.8

Solid Obama

Oregon/7                     53.0 - 38.3 + 14.7                  53.1 – 39.7 + 13.4                  

Last week:                    54.7 – 40.0 + 14.7                   53.3 – 40.9 + 12.4

Solid Obama

Washington/11           55.0 – 39.7 + 15.3                   52.3 – 42.7 + 9.6        

Last week:                    50.3 – 41.0 +9.3                      50.9 – 43.4 + 7.5

Solid Obama

Alaska/3                     40.0 – 55.0 – 15.0                   39.7 – 55.0 – 15.3

Last week:                    38.7 – 55.0 - 16.3                    38.2 – 55.3 - 17.1

Solid McCain

Hawaii/4                      no average, still 60+ for            no new polls, same                  

Last week:                    68.0 – 27.0 + 41.0                   63.8 – 30.2 +63.6

Solid Obama

Nevada/5                    49.3 – 46.0 + 3.3                     49.4 – 46.2 + 3.2                    

Last week:                    49.2 - 46.2 + 3.0                    48.8 – 46.4 +2.4

Toss Up

Idaho/4                        no average, still 60+ for M        no new polls, same      

Last week:                    no average                                29.5 – 62.1 – 63.6

Solid McCain

Montana/3/                 44.5 – 47.8 – 3.3                     44.7 – 47.4 – 2.7                    

Last week:                    42.8 – 52.0 – 9.2                     43.5 – 51.2 – 7.7

Toss Up

Wyoming/3                 37.0 – 58.0 – 21.0                   34.9 – 58.1 – 23.2                  

Last week:                    33.0 - 59.3 – 26.3                    32.5 – 61.0 – 28.5

Solid McCain

Utah/5                         No new polls, same                  No new polls, same                 

Last week:                    26.3 – 62.7 -36.4                    29.6 – 63.9 – 34.3

Solid McCain

Colorado/9                  50.4 – 45.0 + 5.4                     50.9 – 45.2 + 5.7        

Last week:                    50.4 – 44.6 + 5.8                     50.6 – 44.4 + 6.2

Lean Obama

New Mexico/5            No change                                50.4 – 43.9 + 6.5        

Last week:                    50.7 – 42.3 + 8.4                     50.9 – 43.4 + 7.5

Solid Obama

Arizona/10                  No change                                No change                   

Last week:                    39.0 – 50.3 - 11.3                    38.9 – 51.4 – 11.5

Solid McCain

 

 

 

Oregon      Merkley 44.0 Smith 41.0 + 3.0      Merkley 44.2 Smith 38.7 + 5.5

Last week: Merkley 46.0 Smith 42.7 + 3.3       Merkley 45.4 Smith 41.4 +4.0

 

            The race remains close; Obama has done an ad for Merkley; Smith’s getting into some trouble over safety violations at Smith Frozen foods, the outfit that made him a millionaire; 623 complaints, including 11 amputations (per dailykos race roundup, 23.10)                  

 

Alaska               Begich 47.3 Stevens 46.7 + 0.6 Begich 47.4 Steven 46.0 + 1.4

Last week: Begich 48.5 Stevens 45.3 +3.2       Begich 48.2 Stevens 46.7 +1.5

 

            The jury now has the Stevens case, but have had some trouble with outbursts from jurors during deliberations and sick jurors. The verdicts may come just before election day, Stevens could survive if acquitted on all counts.         

 

Colorado         M. Udall 48.5 Schffer 39.0 + 9.5 Udall 47.3 Schaffer 39.5 +7.8      

Last week: M. Udall 46.6 Schaffer 38.8 | 7.8   Udall 46.3 Schaffer 39.0 +7.3

 

            Mark has moved into a bigger lead; appears on the verge of sewing it up, particularly with McCain abandoning his ads and the RNCC abandoning Musgrave in CO – 04.  

 

New Mexico      No new polling                           No new polling

Last week: T. Udall 55.3 Pearce 37.7 + 17.6    Udall 55.9 Pearce 39.5 + 16.4

 

            This one is in the bag.  

 

CA 03              R                      R          R                      R                      R          r

Last week:        R                      R          R                      R                      R          r

Durston v. Lungren

 

Last week:        T                      r           r                       R                     T          r

Brown v. McClintock

            This is likely to be the only real pickup opportunity in California.

 

CA 26              R                      R          R                      R                      R          R

Last week:        R                      R          R                      R                      R          R

Warner v. Dreier

 

CA 46              R                      R          R                      R                      R          R

Last week:        R                      R          r                       R                      R          r

Cook v. Rohrabacher

 

CA 50              R                      R          r                       r                       R         r          

Last week:        R                      R          R                      r                       R          r

Leibham v. Bilbray

 

WA 08             T                      T          T                      r                       T          T

Last week:        T                      T          T                      r                       d          T

Burner v. Reichert

            The race is getting nasty on the GOP side; Reichert may have violated campaign laws with a loan. 

 

AK AL            D                     d          D                     d                      d          T         

Last week:        d                      d          D                     d                      d          D        

Berkowitz v. Young

                       

NV 02             R                      r           R                      r                       r           r

Last week:        R                      r           R                      r                       r           r          

Derby v. Heller

 

NV 03             T                      T          T                      d                      T          T         

Last week:        R                      T          d                      d                      T          T         

Titus v. Porter

 

ID 01               r                       r           T                      r                       T          T         

Last week:        r                       R          R                      r                       r           r          

Minnick v. Sali

           

            You can see the movement away from Sali very clearly here. Minnick was way behind two weeks ago, surging now.    

 

WY AL            r                       T          R                      T                      T          T

Last week:        r                       R          r                       T                      R         

Trauner v. Lummis

CO 04             T                      T          T                      d                      D         T         

Last week :       T                      T          T                      d                      D         T                     

Markey v. Musgrave

            The RNCC has pulled the plug on Musgrave, Markey will win.

 

NM 01                        T                      T          T                      d                      d          d         

Last week :       T                      T          T                      T                      T          d             Heinrich v. White

 

            I’m told by a DAG member who was just in NM that this race is really getting heated with some nasty ads, but the movement appears to benefit Heinrich.

           

NM 02                        T                      r           T                      d                      T          T         

Last week:        T                      R          T                      T                      T          T         

Teague v. Tinsley

            Looks like Teague may be catching up.

 

AZ 01              d                      d          D                     d                      R*        D

Last week:        d                      d          d                      d                      d          D

Kirkpatrick v. Hay

Last week;       r                       R          R                      R                      T          r

Lord v. Shadegg          

 

Dem Pickups 2                      2          2                      6                      3          3         

Last week:      2                      2          3                      4                      5          3

Tossups          6                      5          6                      2                      7          6

Last week:      5                      4          4                      2                      6          4

            .

 

CA 11              D                     d          d                      d                      D         d

Last week:        D                     d          T                      d                      D         d

McNierney v. Andal

 

OR 05             D                     D         D                     D                     D         D

Last week:        D                     d          D                     D                     D         D

Schrader v. Erickson

 

AZ 05              D                     D         D                     d                      D         D        

Last week:        D                     d          D                     d                      D         D

Mitchell v. Schweikert

 

AZ 08              D                     D         D                     d                      D         D        

Last week:        D                     d          D                     d                      D         D

Giffords v. Bee

 

3 or 4 are now safe and McNierney is putting it away in CA 11.

 

Code: T = tossup; little d or little r is ‘lean/tilt’ capital R or D is a higher level of support, either likely, favored or safe. CA 26 will come off our chart next week unless there is a sudden surge to the Democrat.

 

RCP = Real Clear Politics

CQ = Congressional Quarterly

Rothenberg = Stuart Rothenberg Political Report

Sabato = Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia writing for Rasmussen

Pollster.com the polling average website we always use

Cook = The Cook Political Report

 

We are no longer going to follow CA 03, CA 26, CA 46, CA 50 on the Republican side and only CA 11 remains even remotely in trouble for our side.

 

Tomorrow will be the final day off before Election Day.

 

Best regards,

 

Heidelberg, Germany