WW Daily Election Report No. 17

Tue, 10/28/2008 - 11:46 — John McQueen

Dear Democrats Around the World,

This is WW Daily Election Report No. 17, 27 October

Monday daily report sponsor is Christine Heinerscheid, Chair, DA Luxembourg!!

Eight Days make a long week to Election Day!!

WW Election Night Coverage:

As previously announced, WW will go to a two hour reporting cycle on Election Night, beginning at 8 pm, Eastern Standard Time. Two years ago there were many around the world, who, either because of work commitments or couldn’t access network or internet reports, relied upon WW to keep them minimally up to date.

On Election Night many will be at all-night election parties perhaps away from their computers and I don’t know whether the listserve moderators will be sitting at their Blackberries to pass on the reports. So….if you wish to receive the bi-hourly reports directly, perhaps to announce results at your election party, please give me an email address to send them to you. I will create a special list for those who wish to directly receive the reports that night and not wait for the listserve. I will need your email address by Sunday, 2 November at the latest. Send me an email to johncmcqueen@gmail.com with the word “Election Night Email” in the subject line.

What’s happening now:

a. We’ll try to keep track of where the candidates go the last 7 days of the campaign: October 27 –

Barack Obama – Canton, Ohio and Pittsburgh, Pa; Joe Biden – Greenville and Greensboro, North Carolina, New Port Richey, Florida; Michele Obama – Las Vegas, Nevada.

John McCain – Kettering, Ohio, Pottsville, Pa; Sarah Palin – Leesburg, Fredericksburg and Salem, Virginia;

While McCain has reduced his ad buys in Pennsylvania, he knows he has no chance without a Kerry state; Obama is not taking any chances with either Ohio or PA.

b. Yesterday in Denver, Obama held a rally for the largest crowd in the US yet, many more than 100K. There were 45K in Fort Greeley. On Saturday, he had a rally in Albuquerque, New Mexico for 35,000; McCain’s rally in New Mexico attracted 1,000. There is disagreement over the importance of crowd size, but in the last week of a campaign, when people have a chance to see the next president of the United States, 35-1 difference has to mean something.

c. There is continuing and growing evidence that the McCain campaign is falling apart. Palin disregarded campaign management advice to leave the $150K clothing issue alone, but still told a crowd in Nevada that the clothes ‘don’t belong to me.” Another way of keeping the story alive. One report referred to Palin as a ‘Diva,’ still another outlined her effort to go ‘rogue’ during the last days of the campaign. If in fact, she has given up on the idea of being VP this time around, her efforts, if she has any future party ambition, may be to assure that she does not take the blame from the right for the loss.

d. The list of ‘Republican leaning’ states continues to grow. West Virginia is back on, South Dakota is close, Georgia is listed by several pundits as a Toss Up state and wonder of wonders – Arizona on the maps is moving to pink instead of deep red. Two polls over the weekend show Obama within 2 and 4 points; well within the margin of error in both polls. Obama’s campaign has announced that volunteers will be sent to Georgia (paid staff were pulled out in early September); no word yet on Arizona, but wouldn’t it be sweet to take McCain’s home state. Payback for Gore in 2000.

e. The corporate media is steering clear of the implications in the Pennsylvania ‘false report’ case of Ashley Todd, but questions still remain, particularly since a McCain staffer, since fired, released an email to 75,000 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania suggesting that an Obama win would lead to another holocaust. The McCain campaign quickly disassociated itself from the mailing and said a correction would be sent out to all 75,000.

“Political consultant Bryan Rudnick was identified as the person responsible for it. Rudnick, reached Saturday night, confirmed that he no longer works for the party, which employed him a few weeks ago as a consultant to do outreach to Jewish voters.

“ ‘I had authorization from party officials" to send the e-mail, Rudnick said, but he declined to say who had signed off on it. "I'm not looking to drag anyone else through the mud, so I'm not naming names right now," he said.”

I guess Rudnick will wait until after the election to name names; the correction from the Republican Party will probably wait until then too.

f. The blogs are full of discussion whether getting to 60 Senators is that important. We’ll follow up on this issue over the next days.

g. Polling over the weekend tightened just a bit, but the 6-8 point lead is still not threatened. Virginia is over 7, Colorado and Ohio over 6. Early voting continues to set records, much of it favoring Obama.

No need to go to New England in detail today; here some new charting for your review:

Electoral Vote Outlook

Obama-McCain Tossup

RCP Open Left pollster EV.com MyDD 538.com

306-157-75 322-157-59 306-142-90 375-157-6 375-163 351-187

Obama McCain

WW by region Solid Lean Tossup Lean Solid

NE & Mid Atlantic (117) 117 0 0 0 0 0

South Plus (173) 13 42 20 98

Midwest/Upper Plains (124) 65 20 25 1 13

West Coast/Mountain (124) 82 9 8 0 25

Total 264 42 75 21 136