Americans Away From Home

Dear Democrats Around the World,

Tuesday’s sponsor, Beverly Olson-Dopffel‘s, key interest is "Oikocredit http://www.oikocredit.org/site/en/ . Take a look.

 

Election Day is FIVE days away!!

 

WW Election Night Coverage: As previously announced, WW will go to a two hour reporting cycle on Election Night, beginning at 8 pm, Eastern Standard Time. Two years ago there were many around the world, who, either because of work commitments or couldn’t access network or internet reports, relied upon WW to keep them minimally up to date.

On Election Night many will be at all-night election parties perhaps away from their computers and I don’t know whether the listserve moderators will be sitting at their Blackberries to pass on the reports. So….if you wish to receive the bi-hourly reports directly, perhaps to announce results at your election party, please give me an email address to send them to you. I will create a special list for those who wish to directly receive the reports that night and not wait for the listserve. I will need your email address by Sunday, 2 November at the latest. Send me an email to johncmcqueen@gmail.com with the word “Election Night Email” in the subject line.  It would help if you would repeat your name and email address in the body of the email, thanks.

 

Congratulations to the Philadelphia Phillies and their fans - 2008 World Series Champs!!

                        Obama: Sarasota FL, Virginia Beach VA and Columbia MO; Biden: Arnold, Mo, Williamsport and Allentown PA

                        McCain: Defiance, Sandusky, Elyria and Mentor OH: Palin: Cape Girardeau MO, Eire and Williamsport, PA

                        a. The 30 minute Obama ad on six channels was obviously designed for people who had not been paying much attention thus far. It was a repeat of aspects of Obama’s life story and the specifics of his proposals on the economy, health care, education and energy. It presented Obama as compassionate and human in settings with ordinary Americans (four stories of middle class families in trouble were told); as ready to lead with segments taken in his Senate office mixed in with portions of his major speeches and strong endorsements from Biden, Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill and Governors Sebelius and Richardson. The tone was relatively muted emphasizing the calmness of his approach to solving problems. Whether it will have the desired effect awaits election day, but it was not over the top and did no harm.

                        b. A Sarah Palin’s interview with ABC News shook up the McCain camp when she indicated that she would be around in 2012 if McCain-Palin didn’t win on 4 November. She didn’t get into the race “for naught.” One McCain staffer was described as ‘speechless” when told the content of her remark. Often thought by losing VP candidates, but never before expressed so bluntly. 

                        c. The North Carolina Senate race took a really nasty turn with a Dole ad accusing her Democratic opponent Kay Hagan of being ‘godless.’ The ad took guilt-by-association to a new level for 2008, by suggesting that because Hagan took campaign contributions from a anti-religious group, Hagan was somehow unreligious. Hagan is a regular attendee, elder and Sunday School Teacher at Greensboro First Presbyterian Church. Hagan has issued a ‘cease and desist’ letter to Dole with threat of legal action if the ad is not taken off the air. Republican pundits are heavily criticizing Dole's ‘desperate act’ with suggestions that there were more responsible ways to attack the relationship between Hagan and the anti-religious organization.

                        d. In case you are still nervous… A report from BuzzFlash.com “PLEASANTVILLE, N.Y., Oct. 29 /PRNewswire/ -- Just days before Americans choose our next president, voting has concluded in the Weekly Reader Student Presidential Election Poll. And the nation's students resoundingly say that Barack Obama will be the country's next leader. In the 14th Weekly Reader election survey, with more than 125,000 votes cast from kindergarten through 12th grade, the result was Obama 54.7% and John McCain 42.9% (with "other" candidates receiving 2.5% of the student vote). The Obama victory in the classroom electoral vote was even more resounding: The Democrat won 33 states and the District of Columbia, garnering 420 electoral votes, while McCain took 17 states and 118 electoral votes.

 

“For the past 52 years, the results of the Weekly Reader poll have been consistently on target, with the student vote correctly predicting the next president in 12 out of 13 elections. (The only time the kids were wrong was 1992, when they chose George H.W. Bush over Bill Clinton.) This year, as in 2000 and 2004, the student election was conducted in conjunction with noted polling organization Zogby International.

 

"Historically, our poll has been an amazing indicator of the presidential race's outcome, so we're all waiting with great anticipation to see what happens on Election Day," said Neal Goff, President of Weekly Reader. "Throughout the past few months, we've delivered cutting-edge multimedia election materials directly to schools so that students could cast an informed vote. We're excited to have given kids this important forum to express their opinions about who should be the next president."

 

            I remember taking part in the Weekly Reader poll in 1956 at Westgate Elementary School in West Palm Beach, FL. In the interest of full disclosure, I voted for Eisenhower-Nixon. 

 

                        e. Some good news: “The Department of Justice will not require Ohio to disclose the names of voters whose registration applications did not match other government databases, according to two people familiar with discussions between state and federal lawyers. The decision comes about a week after an unusual request from President Bush asking the department to investigate the matter and roughly two weeks after the Supreme Court dismissed a case involving the flagged registration applications.” (dailykos)

 

             

                                                Obama                        McCain

WW by region                        Solid    Lean     Tossup             Lean     Solid

 

NE & Mid Atlantic (117)          117       0         0                    0          0

South Plus (173)                       13         0         57                   0          103     

Midwest/Upper Plains (124)    65        20        25                    4*        10

West Coast/Mountain   (124)    82         9         8                    0          25

 

Total    (538)                            277      29        90                    4          138     

* Nebraska 02 congressional district (1)

Ohio/20           49.1 – 43.3 + 5.8                     49.5 – 43.5 + 6.0         Lean O

1 week ago      49.7 – 43.7 +6.0                      49.5 – 45.5 + 4.0

2 weeks ago     48.9 - 45.5 +3.4                    49.6 – 45.3 +4.3

                        This looks good for us

 

Indiana/11       47.4 – 46.0 + 1.4                     46.4 – 47.5 – 1.1         Tosss Up

1 week ago      46.7 – 47.3 – 0.6                     46.2 – 47.8 – 1.6

2 weeks ago     45.0 - 48.8   -3.8                    45.5 – 48.0 – 2.5

                        Still razor thin.

 

Illinois/21        58.0 – 34.5 + 23.5                   58.7 – 33.6 + 25.1       Solid O           

1 week ago      57.7 – 34.3 + 23.4                   58.4 – 33.0 + 25.4

2 weeks ago     55.0 - 37.3 +17.                    55.3 – 37.7 + 16.6

 

Michigan/17   54.0 – 38.5 + 15.5                   54.7 – 38.0 + 16.7       Solid O           

1 week ago      56.0 – 38.0 + 18.0                   54.6 – 38.9 +15.7

2 weeks ago     50.7 - 40.2 +10.5                   51.1 – 41.3 + 9.8

 

Wisconsin/10 51.8 – 41.2 + 10.6                   51.7 – 41.8 + 9.9         Solid O           

1 week ago      52.0 – 42.6 + 11.4                   51.4 – 41.8 + 9.6

2 weeks ago     52.4 - 42.0 +10.4                   50.4 – 43.6 + 6.8

Minnesota/10 51.1 – 40.3 + 10.8                   51.8 – 42.1 + 9.7         Solid O

1 week ago      52.8 – 40.5 +12.3                    51.4 – 42.6 + 8.8

2 weeks ago     51.3 - 42.6 +8.7                     49.8- 44.4 + 5.4

Iowa/7             52.4 – 40.8 + 11.4                   53.0 – 41.3 + 11.7       Solid O

1 week ago      53.0 – 40.5 + 12.5                   53.5 – 41.4 +12.1

2 weeks ago     52.8 - 41.0 +11.8                   53.2 – 41.8 + 11.4

 

Missouri/11    48.0 – 47.8 + 0.2                     48.4 – 46.7 + 1.7         Toss Up          

1 week ago      48.0 – 45.3 + 2.7                     48.8 – 46.9 + 1.9

2 weeks ago     48.8 - 47.0 +1.8                     47.7 – 48.2 - 0.5

                        This may end up being the closest margin in the country.

 

N. Dakota/3    no change                                 no change                     Toss Up

1 week ago      43.7 – 47.7 – 4.0                     44.9 – 41.3 +3.6

2 weeks ago     No average listed                      43.8 – 47.4 – 3.6

S. Dakota/3    no average listed                       41.4 – 48.9 – 7.5         Lean M

1 week ago      no average listed                       39.1 – 51.4 – 12.3

2 weeks ago     No average listed                      38.1 – 52.7 – 14.6

Nebraska/5     no new average                        no new average            Solid M*         

1 week ago      no new average                        no new average

2 weeks ago     35.3 – 54.1 -18.7                     35.8 – 58.1 – 22.3

Kansas/6         no new average                        no new average            Solid M           

1 week ago      no new average                        no new average

2 weeks ago     40.7 - 52.7 - 12.0                   38.5 – 56.2 – 17.7

 

 

                        37.4       37.9      16.9 – 0.5   39.1        35.6       15.1 + 3.5

                        40.0        38.3      17.8 + 1.7   39.6        36.4       17.0 + 2.2

            39.6        37.4       17.2 + 2.2   39.4        37.7       n/a   +1.7

Recent polling has been leaning toward Coleman, but it still remains anybody’s race to win. 

 

Tomorrow we will look at the West Coast and Mountain states.

 

Best regards,

 

Heidelberg, Germany