Americans Away From Home

Dear Democrats Around the World,

FOUR DAYS TO GO!!

 

WW Election Night Coverage: One last time: WW will go to a two hour reporting cycle on Election Night, beginning at 8 pm, Eastern Standard Time. Two years ago there were many around the world, who, either because of work commitments or couldn’t access network or internet reports, relied upon WW to keep them minimally up to date.

 

On Election Night many will be at all-night election parties perhaps away from their computers and I don’t know whether the listserve moderators will be sitting at their Blackberries to pass on the reports. So….if you wish to receive the bi-hourly reports directly, perhaps to announce results at your election party, please give me an email address to send them to you. I will create a special list for those who wish to directly receive the reports that night and not wait for the listserve. I will need your email address by Sunday, 2 November at the latest. Send me an email to johncmcqueen@gmail.com with the word “Election Night Email” in the subject line.  It would help if you would repeat your name and email address in the body of the email, thanks.

            Obama: Des Moines, Iowa and Highland, Indiana; Joe (and Jill) Biden: Newark, Delaware, Kettering and Lima, Ohio

            McCain: Hanoverton, Steubenville, New Philadelphia and Columbus, Ohio; Palin: Latrobe and York, Pennsylvania.

            a. There is continued fallout from the Dole TV ad calling Kay Hagan ‘godless.’ Hagan has issued three new TV ads, two dealing with the economy and one directly taking on Dole for her ‘bearing false witness’ ad, as Hagan describes it. In addition Hagan has indicated that she will file a defamation lawsuit against Dole. 

 

            b. Fox News issued a new poll yesterday showing John McCain gaining significant ground on Obama. The earlier poll (Oct 21-22) showed Obama leading 49-40; the latest showed the lead at 47-44 a six point gain and playing right into the ‘come back’ narrative that McCain has been pushing. Ah ha…turns out that Fox changed a key factor in coming up with their numbers; taking the party split between Democrats and Republicans from 43-37 to 41-39. Most pollsters put the split much wider even than 43-37; 41-39 is absolutely ridiculous in an environment where the president’s approval rating is below 25% and the generic congressional ballot shows the Dems ahead by 10 or more. We all know that Fox politicizes their entire news coverage, but up to now they have played pretty straight in their polling. It doesn’t take too many times of manipulation to get the rest of the journalistic community and the country to disregard the perpetrator altogether. Why has it taken so long, I hear you ask...

 

            c. Below I make a rare reading recommendation for a daily report, but today’s Economist endorsement of Barack Obama is worthy of your reading  today and not wait until Wednesday’s list. It's a completely fair evaluation of the two candidates and gives good reasons for conservative business-oriented managers to vote for Obama. Good for the Economist, which hasn’t always recommended the best choice. Their endorsement is ‘wholehearted.”

 

            d. The most recent polling in Arizona is causing a great deal of comment and interest in the blogosphere; four polls in succession show Obama within 2-4 points of McCain in his own state. McCain has started using robocalls and the Obama campaign is looking to advertise there for the first time in weeks and even to bring Obama to Arizona over the weekend (during his last western swing) to try to wrest this one away – a colossal achievement if it happens. This would be pure icing on the cake and the sweetest kind of all.

Update:  The Obama campaign has announced that they will go in Georgia, North Dakota (again) and Arizona with major ad buys.  Still no word on an Obama visit to the state.

 

            e. 33.6 million Americans watched the Obama Infomercial, more than watched the final game of the World Series (without the Red Sox the viewership was down, of course). Tracking polls starting today will include data from post-Infomercial interviews. Most commentary has give fairly high marks to the effort. John McCain didn’t like it much.

           

            f. Vote projections in California are predicting that Obama will end up with a wider winning margin in the Golden State than Ronald Reagan ever won and he may be cruising to beat the all time winner – Franklin Roosevelt in 1936. 

 

             

                                                Obama                        McCain

WW by region                        Solid    Lean     Tossup             Lean     Solid

 

NE & Mid Atlantic (117)          117       0         0                    0          0

South Plus (173)                       13         0         57                   0          103     

Midwest/Upper Plains (124)    65        20        25                    4*        10

West Coast/Mountain   (124)    96         0         3                    10        15

 

Total    (538)                            291      20        85                    14        128     

* Nebraska 02 congressional district (1)

California/55               57.8 – 233.8 +24.0                  55.4 – 36.8 + 18.6      

1 week ago                  57.0 – 36.0 +19.0                    54.7 – 38.1 + 16.6      

2 weeks ago:                53.3 – 38.8 + 14.5                   53.4 = 39.6 +13.8

Solid Obama

 

Oregon/7                     53.0 – 37.8 + 15.2                   53.4 – 39.0 + 14.4                  

1 week ago:                  53.0 - 38.3 + 14.7                  53.1 – 39.7 + 13.4                  

2 weeks ago:                54.7 – 40.0 + 14.7                   53.3 – 40.9 + 12.4

Solid Obama

 

Washington/11           55.0 – 38.0 +17.0                    53.6 – 41.4 + 12.2      

1 week ago:                  55.0 – 39.7 + 15.3                   52.3 – 42.7 + 9.6        

2 weeks ago:                50.3 – 41.0 +9.3                      50.9 – 43.4 + 7.5

Solid Obama

 

Alaska/3                     40.3 – 55.7 - 15.4                    40.6 – 55.9 – 15.3                  

1 week ago:                  40.0 – 55.0 – 15.0                   39.7 – 55.0 – 15.3

2 weeks ago:                38.7 – 55.0 - 16.3                    38.2 – 55.3 - 17.1

Solid McCain

 

Hawaii/4                      no new polling                          no new polling             

1 week ago:                  no average, still 60+ for            no new polls, same                  

2 weeks ago:                68.0 – 27.0 + 41.0                   63.8 – 30.2 +63.6

Solid Obama

 

Nevada/5                    50.3 – 43.3 + 7.0                     50.3 – 44.4 + 5.9                    

1 week ago:                  49.3 – 46.0 + 3.3                     49.4 – 46.2 + 3.2                    

2 weeks ago:                49.2 - 46.2 + 3.0                    48.8 – 46.4 +2.4

Toss Up to Solid Obama

 

Idaho/4                        no new polling                          no new polling             

1 week ago:                  no average, still 60+ for M        no new polls, same      

2 weeks ago:                no average                                29.5 – 62.1 – 63.6

Solid McCain

 

Montana/3/                 44.8 – 46.8 – 2.0                     45.2 – 48.2 – 3.0        

1 week ago:                  44.5 – 47.8 – 3.3                     44.7 – 47.4 – 2.7                    

2 weeks ago:               42.8 – 52.0 – 9.2                     43.5 – 51.2 – 7.7

Toss Up

 

Wyoming/3                 36.0 – 58.0 – 22.0*                 no new average                       

1 week ago:                  37.0 – 58.0 – 21.0                   34.9 – 58.1 – 23.2                  

2 weeks ago:                33.0 - 59.3 – 26.3                    32.5 – 61.0 – 28.5

* Average of two October polls

Solid McCain

 

Utah/5                         32.0 – 51.0 - 19.0**               32.4- 56.4 – 22.0                    

1 week ago:                  No new polls, same                  No new polls, same                 

2 weeks ago:                26.3 – 62.7 -36.4                    29.6 – 63.9 – 34.3

** One October poll

Solid McCain

 

Colorado/9                  50.8 – 44.3 + 6.5                     51.1 – 44.6 + 6.5        

1 week ago:                  50.4 – 45.0 + 5.4                     50.9 – 45.2 + 5.7        

2 weeks ago:                50.4 – 44.6 + 5.8                     50.6 – 44.4 + 6.2

Lean Obama to Solid Obama

 

New Mexico/5            50.3 – 43.0 +7.3                      51.2 – 44.0 + 7.2                    

1 week ago:                  No change                                50.4 – 43.9 + 6.5        

2 weeks ago:                50.7 – 42.3 + 8.4                     50.9 – 43.4 + 7.5

Solid Obama

 

Arizona/10                  44.2 – 49.4 – 5.2                     43.0 – 49.1 – 6.1        

1 week ago:                  No change                                No change                   

2 weeks ago:                39.0 – 50.3 - 11.3                    38.9 – 51.4 – 11.5

Solid McCain to Lean McCain

 

Oregon Merkley 44.8 Smith 41.3 + 3.5 Merkley 44.9 Smith 39.8 + 4.9   

1 week ago:Merkley 44.0 Smith 41.0 + 3.0     Merkley 44.2 Smith 38.7 + 5.5

2 weeks ago: Merkley 46.0 Smith 42.7 + 3.3    Merkley 45.4 Smith 41.4 +4.0

            Merkley’s lead is expanding ever so slightly as Obama’s lead grows. The coattails will be important in a state noted for their independence in choosing Senators.

Alaska               Begich 47.3 Stevens 46.7 + 0.6 Begich 47.4 Steven 46.0 + 1.4

Last week: Begich 48.5 Stevens 45.3 +3.2       Begich 48.2 Stevens 46.7 +1.5

 

            Stevens, as reported, was guilty on all seven counts, both McCain and, finally, Palin have told him to resign. Should Stevens win and then resign, there is some thought that Palin would appoint herself to the seat for two years giving herself the national stage she seeks. Begich leads by 8 in the only poll published since the verdict, so Palin may not get the chance. Most pundits see this as a sure win for Begich now.   

 

There is a reading recommendation for today – The Economist’s endorsement of Barack Obama:   “It’s Time” at http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12516666&source=features_box_main . Not many foreign endorsements carry much wait; this one is always an exception.

 

For the next three days, I’ll try to give you a complete picture of where we are, particularly with the Senate and House races and a guide for watching on Tuesday, including Presidential, Senate and House scorecards. Of course on Monday, WW’s fearless forecast, wait to see if I repeat my June 400 EV prediction…..

 

Best regards,

 

Heidelberg, Germany