Americans Away From Home

Dear Democrats Around the World,

Quote from my wife: “Thank God it will be over in three days!”

            Obama (with Michele): Henderson, Nevada, Pueblo, Colorado and Springfield, Missouri; Joe and Jill Biden: Evansville, Indiana, Marion and Bowling Green, Ohio

            McCain: Newport News and Springfield, Virginia and Perkasie, Pennsylvania; Sarah Palin: New Port Richey, Polk City and Ocala, Florida, Raleigh and Gen Allen, Virginia

 

            a. From politicalwire.com “Simulation Shows Obama Will Win”

 

“Brian Adams, a mathematics and computer science professor at Franklin & Marshall College, reports that there’s a 99.98% chance that Sen. Barack Obama will win the presidential election on Tuesday.

 

“Adams has developed a simulation model that involves running 50 million simulated state-by-state races, using the late-October poll results for each state. He ran his simulation 50 million times to allow him to calculate all the different combinations of electoral votes that might result, even long shots. While the number of possible outcomes is very large, the result is always the same. Obama receives 270 or more electoral votes 99.98% of the time. Using intervals of electoral vote results, there is a 95 percent chance that the outcome will have Obama winning between 303 and 381 electoral votes.” 

 

            b. This past week Obama went past the $100 million mark for paid television and radio ads for the month of October, an all-time record for a presidential campaign. Obama spent $21 million+ this week; McCain $7.5 million. 

 

            c. Sarah Palin not only doesn’t understand what the role of the Vice President is, she doesn’t understand the meaning of the first amendment right to freedom of speech. She told a radio interviewer in Washington D.C. yesterday that her right to freedom of speech is threatened by media criticism that her statements about Obama are ‘negative.’ Oh, my....

 

            d. A story that first appeared in the London Times on Thursday details the fact that a Kenya-born aunt of Barack Obama was denied permission to remain in the United States four years ago, but still lives in public subsidized housing in Boston. There is apparently no personal relationship between the aunt and Barack Obama, but the release of the information through a Rupert Murdock news outlet by the Immigration and Naturalization Service has the smell of a Bush Administration last minute effort to help McCain. Is this another race-based story with immigration overtones, but one that may include illegal revelation of privacy-protected information?   Stay tuned.

 

            e. What about exit polls, will they matter this time? In 2004, the faulty exit polling from the consortium that provided the data to the networks, predicted that John Kerry would win the presidential election. The networks were embarrassed and changed the methods for 2006. Exit poll data for any state is not allowed to be released until after the polls close and reporters are not allowed to copy or transmit the exit poll data when they are looking at it (somewhat reminiscent of John McCain’s medical data, don't you thin?). But the tremendous increase in early voting in many of the key states, up to 50% in some cases, is making a mockery of any exit poll data, so don’t expect much use during the network coverage of the vote count on Tuesday night. When this election is over, polling outfits are going to have to go back to the drawing board on many issues, including who is a likely voter, what is the statistical impact of early voting on results, did the pollsters even understand, without voting numbers, just voter numbers, what actually happened during early voting? 

 

            f. In another polling issue, I have mentioned the Gallup use of two Likely Voter definitions, one based on the 2004 results, another based on higher levels of African-American, Latino and young, first time voters. With every poll release by Gallup, the margin between the two LV polls and the larger poll of registered voters is of interest. The difference between the two LV polls is often as much as 5 percent, with the newer LIVE version favoring Obama more. As election day gets closer, the margin is dropping fast; today’s poll showed only a one point difference: Obama +8 in the traditional LV poll; Obama +9 in the newer version (+11 in the registered voter one). Reason: Early voting, when voters are asked whether they have already voted and say “yes” they not are a Likely Voter, they are a Certain Voter. The fact that the newer LV poll seems to be pulling the older might be substantiation that young, African-American and Latinos are voting in higher numbers than Gallup thought they would.

Good news for Obama if that is true.

 

            g. Let’s take a little different look at polling. Instead of looking at RCP and pollster.com average, let’s look at the last three individual polls in each of the possible battleground states; including New Hampshire and Pennsylvania the only states not carried by Bush in 2004 and which are solidly in our hands now. For comparison, the odds calculated at www.FiveThirtyEight.com are show at the top of each state. We will return to the averages tomorrow and Monday, but individual polls are still interesting in themselves.

Oct 31                         Univ. of NH                 Obama (D) 53%,         McCain (R) 39%

Oct 31                         ARG                            Obama (D) 56%,         McCain (R) 41%

Oct 31                         Rasmussen                   Obama (D) 50%,         McCain (R) 46%

 

This is McCain’s favorite state to campaign in and he spend way too much time here (and Iowa); when they analyze what he did wrong; NH will be among the reasons.

 

Oct 31                         Muhlenberg                  Obama (D) 53%,         McCain (R) 43%

Oct 30                         Mason-Dixon               Obama (D) 47%,         McCain (R) 43%

Oct 30                         Str. Vision (R)              Obama (D) 49%,         McCain (R) 44%

 

As one pundit pointed out, after 24 visits to the state in the past two weeks; McCain has reduced the margin in Pennsylvania from 13 to 11% overall, although individual polls show a closer race. Gov Rendell continues to insist that it will be much closer. Maybe, but .1 - 7 is still good enough for 21 Electoral Votes.

 

Oct 30                         Natl. Journal                 Obama (D) 48%,         McCain (R) 41%

Oct 30                         CNN                           Obama (D) 51%,         McCain (R) 47%

Oct 29                         Marist                          Obama (D) 48%,         McCain (R) 45%

 

The Republican Party has a good ground game here, which is why Obama will spend all day tomorrow in Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati. If he wins Ohio, he wins the election no matter what else happens.

 

Oct 30                         Natl. Journal                 Obama (D) 48%,         McCain (R) 44%

Oct 30                         Marist                          Obama (D) 51%,         McCain (R) 47%

Oct 29                         CNN                           Obama (D) 53%,         McCain (R) 44%

 

Amazingly secure given the voting history of this state the past 44 years.

 

Oct 31                         Res. 2000                    Obama (D) 47%,         McCain (R) 45%

Oct 31                         InsiderAdvantage          Obama (D) 48%,         McCain (R) 48%

Oct 31                         Elon Univ.                    Obama (D) 45%,         McCain (R) 38%

 

Good chances are getting better here with Liddy Dole’s getting hammered for her horrible ads against Kay Hagan. 

 

Oct 31                         Res. 2000                    McCain (R) 47%,         Obama (D) 44%

Oct 29                         CNN                           McCain (R) 52%,         Obama (D) 47%

Oct 28                         InsiderAdvantage          McCain (R) 48%,        Obama (D) 47%

 

It’s a long shot still.

 

Oct 30                         Natl. Journal                 Obama (D) 45%,         McCain (R) 44%

Oct 29                         CNN                           Obama (D) 51%,         McCain (R) 47%

Oct 29                         AP/GfK                       Obama (D) 45%,         McCain (R) 43%

 

This one is a battle of ground games;

 

Oct 30                         Rasmussen                   McCain (R) 49%,         Obama (D) 46%

Oct 30                         Selzer                           Obama (D) 46%,         McCain (R) 45%

Oct 28                         Howey/Gauge              McCain (R) 47%,         Obama (D) 45%

 

A “nice win” and very close, but don’t cry over Indiana if we lose it.

 

Oct 31                         ARG                            McCain (R) 48%,         Obama (D) 48%

Oct 31                         InsiderAdvantage          McCain (R) 50%,         Obama (D) 47%

Oct 29                         CNN                           McCain (R) 50%,         Obama (D) 48%

 

The closest race in the country; Missouri has its reputation to protect, which is why I think they will go Obama even if Indiana doesn’t.

 

Oct 30                         SurveyUSA                  Obama (D) 55%,         McCain (R) 40%

Oct 27                         Marist                          Obama (D) 52%,         McCain (R) 42%

Oct 26                         Mason-Dixon               Obama (D) 51%,         McCain (R) 40%

 

This one was lost a long time ago; but Palin was here this week (Obama too just to be sure.)

 

 

Oct 31                         Res. 2000                    McCain (R) 47%,         Obama (D) 46%

Oct 17                         Res. 2000                    McCain (R) 45%,         Obama (D) 45%

Oct 16                         DFM (D)                     Obama (D) 44%,         McCain (R) 41%

 

The 538 odds might be wrong here; North Dakota has same day registration; there is not way to tell who will come out to vote on Nov. 4^th.  

 

Oct 31                         ARG                            McCain (R) 49%,         Obama (D) 46%

Oct 31                         Res. 2000                    McCain (R) 48%,         Obama (D) 44%

Oct 30                         Rasmussen                   McCain (R) 50%,         Obama (D) 46%

 

Another potential surprise.

 

Oct 31                         ARG                            Obama (D) 52%,         McCain (R) 45%

Oct 31             PPP (D)                       Obama (D) 54%,         McCain (R) 44%

Oct 30                         Natl. Journal                 Obama (D) 48%,         McCain (R) 44%

 

Winning Colorado (and NM and IA) means Ohio is not ground zero.

 

Oct 31                         PPP (D)                       Obama (D) 58%,         McCain (R) 41%

Oct 29                         Rasmussen                   Obama (D) 54%,         McCain (R) 44%

Oct 15                         Rasmussen                   Obama (D) 55%,         McCain (R) 42%

 

This is a former battleground state

 

Oct 31                         ARG                            McCain (R) 50%,         Obama (D) 46%

Oct 31                         Res. 2000                    McCain (R) 48%,         Obama (D) 47%

Oct 30                         Mason-Dixon               McCain (R) 48%,         Obama (D) 44%

 

The last one to appear on the horizon; only in a wave will this one go our way.

 

Oct 30                         CNN                           Obama (D) 52%,        McCain (R) 45%

Oct 29                         Res. 2000                    Obama (D) 50%,         McCain (R) 45%

Oct 29             AP/GfK                       Obama (D) 52%,         McCain (R) 40%

 

We’re in good shape here.

 

The last two days will be full of data on the Presidential, Senate and House races, plus Monday’s final prediction. 

 

Best regards,

 

Heidelberg, Germany