Americans Away From Home

This excellent discussion of the current delegate situation is from Wednesday Wire.
(Wednesday Wire March 12, 2008, here)

With kind permission from John McQueen.

Carole
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Pennsylvania is next, but should it be?

Here’s a summary of the current delegate situation with data from Democratic Convention Watch (Democratic Convention Watch Date here), which has the most complete coverage of the delegate race. Nearly all news organizations have good coverage; the figures are slightly different in each, so choosing one is like choosing them all (All numbers below do not include any from Florida or Michigan but do include the Spitzer resignation):

Type delegate                        Clinton                   Obama
Total elected pledged              1237                    1385
Super delegate declared           245                      207
Total to date                           1482                     1592
Obama lead                              110                    
Needed to win                          543                       433

Delegates pledge to
others/unknown                               26
Delegates yet
to be allocated                                  39
Undeclared Super Delegates           343
Unelected pledged Delegates          566
Total remaining                                948

With Clinton needing 543 of the remaining 566 (95.7%); she cannot win the nomination in the remaining primaries and caucuses; Obama will have a nearly impossible task getting 433 of 566 (76.5%). The Clinton margin of +39 in declared super delegates is still shrinking, although less dramatically than two weeks ago. Were she to get half of the remaining pledged delegates; she would still need 243 of the remaining 343 super delegates to win the nomination. If Obama wins half of the remaining pledged delegates; he will need 133 of the 343 to win.

Current projections (yes, they can change) gives Obama majorities in North Carolina and Indiana and he is favored in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota; all these worth 270 delegates total (i.e. Obama will have at least 140 of these (assuming no double digit wins – unlikely). If these five states are taken together; every one percent increase for Obama, gives him 3 more delegates.

Clinton will win Kentucky, Guam and Puerto Rico, total delegate worth 138; with 60% (unlikely) she could have 83 more delegates. 130 (in Obama’s winning states under the best of circumstances) + 83 is 213. Thus Pennsylvania would HAVE to go her way at least 55-36, the latest polling numbers according to Survey USA, (the polling outfit with the best record so far this year). If she holds such a lead (the pattern thus far does not support that scenario) and delegate distribution matched the vote (which hasn’t happened yet in any state); Clinton would have 97 of the 158 pledged delegates for Pennsylvania. The more likely total would be 90 with that kind of win. But let’s give all possible delegates to her:

With 213 + 97 = 310; she would still need 233 oft the remaining 343 undeclared super delegates to win (67.9%), i.e., completely reverse the two month trend of increasing numbers of declared delegates for Obama. She has to convince the super delegates that under no circumstances should Barack Obama be the nominee; otherwise such a surge in super delegate support cannot happen.

If I were on the Clinton campaign staff, I would think I am being subjected to a Chinese water torture; with every delegate lost, two have to be made up. With the numbers above, it is easier to understand the Florida/Michigan position the Clinton campaign has taken (a problem solution of which is not trending in their favor) and the almost desperate tactics being employed. If significant numbers of super delegates start declaring for Obama (as several news/bloggers are suggesting will happen shortly), Clinton will have decide whether to go totally negative and tear the party apart or withdraw.